I. International Hotspots

1.The US-Iran signing is imminent on the 19th, TTF dropped 18% in four days

The signing ceremony of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva, Switzerland-. As a result, European natural gas prices have continued to plummet. On June 16, Dutch TTF near-month futures fell more than 2.5% to 41.415 euros/MWh, hitting 41.95 euros/MWh during the session, the lowest since May 7; UK natural gas futures fell 2% to 99 pence/therm. TTF has dropped 18.2% over the past four trading days.

However, European natural gas prices are still about 30% higher than pre-crisis levels. There are still doubts about the stability of the agreement, and it may take weeks for shipping companies to regain confidence in navigating the strait. Qatar plans to quickly increase LNG production after the safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, but the extent of damage to its export facilities remains the biggest variable.

2. Citi significantly lowers gas price forecast

On June 16, Citibank released a report lowering the average price forecast for TTF in the second half of 2026 to $12.4/MMBtu (about 37 euros/MWh), and in 2027 to $9.2/MMBtu; JKM's target price for the second half of 2026 is $13.5/MMBtu, and in 2027 is $9.5; Henry Hub in the second half of 2026 is $3.2/MMBtu, and in 2027 is $2.8. Citi believes that the continued weakness in Asian LNG import demand, strong hydropower in China, and increased water flow in Southeast Asia are important reasons for the bearish outlook.

3. US HH remains stable near $3.14

On June 16, NYMEX natural gas futures closed at $3.147/MMBtu, up 0.9% on the day-. Mild weather forecasts have reduced cooling demand expectations for late June, and the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has little impact on US domestic gas prices-. Citi predicts the average price of HH in the second half of 2026 to be $3.2/MMBtu-.

4. Overview of Global Inventory Data

European storage capacity rate is 44.72%, 8.8 percentage points lower year-on-year, and the pressure to replenish inventory continues.

II. China Hotspots

1. Domestic LNG: North China prices rise, Northwest increases by more than 50% year-on-year

On June 16, the spot price of liquefied natural gas was reported at 6,328 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day.

Northwest LNG: 5,826 yuan/ton, month-on-month +0.12%,year-on-year surged 50.97%

Bohai LNG: 6,621 yuan/ton, month-on-month -0.14%, year-on-year +44.97%

North China Market: The mainstream receiving price in Hebei is 6,400 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous day; Shandong is 6,465 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. The average price at receiving stations has risen, with continued limited shipments. Although downstream demand is weak, cost support coupled with tight supply has driven prices to continue to rise.

East China Market: The mainstream receiving price in Jiangsu is 6,749 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang is 6,640 yuan/ton, overall stable.

Sichuan-Chongqing Area: Daily price is 6,373 yuan/ton, up 0.66% month-on-month.

2. Raw gas costs remain high in the second half of June

PetroChina's raw gas price for liquefaction plants in the second half of June: 4.005 yuan/cubic meter in the western and northern regions, 4.035 yuan/cubic meter in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou. The equivalent factory production cost is about 6,500-6,600 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the current mainstream ex-factory price, leaving very limited profit margins for liquefaction plants. Cost support is the core driver of the current upward trend in North China prices.

3. National Bureau of Statistics: January-May large-scale industrial natural gas production was 111.7 billion cubic meters

The National Bureau of Statistics released data on June 16, showing that from January to May, large-scale industrial natural gas production was 111.7 billion cubic meters, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year. In May, large-scale industrial power generation was 784.3 billion kWh, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year.

4. Datang Jinhua Gas Power Project Unit 2 is sprinting to be put into operation by the end of June

The Datang Jinhua Natural Gas Power Project is one of the first 9H-class gas turbine power projects in Zhejiang Province. Unit 2 is being intensively debugged, sprinting to be put into operation and generate electricity by the end of June-. The project has the advantages of quick response, low energy consumption, and environmental friendliness. Unit 1 was put into operation at the end of 2025, and after Unit 2 is put into operation, the total annual power generation is expected to exceed 3 billion kWh, undertaking the function of grid peak regulation and providing heat for industrial parks. This was reported in the previous issue, and there is no new progress today.

5. Coal-to-gas and LNG storage projects continue to advance

Inner Mongolia Huaxing New Energy40 billion cubic meters/year coal-to-gas project has launched the bidding for the first phase, including two major tenders for foundation treatment inspection and chemical area supervision, indicating that the project is about to start construction.

Hefei (Lujiang) LNG Emergency Peak Shaving Reserve StationThe general contracting project for supporting facilities has officially started construction, marking that Anhui Province's key energy supply guarantee project has entered the substantive construction stage.

III. Company Dynamics

ENN Group: Fitch Ratings confirmed its 'BBB' long-term foreign currency issuer default rating on June 16, with a 'Stable' outlook.

PetroChina Natural Gas Sales Company: Held the 2026 "Safety Production Month" publicity and consultation day event in Kunming on June 16.

Binzhou Municipal GovernmentandChina Oil & Gassigned a government-enterprise cooperation agreement in Qingdao-.

Shouhua Gasfell 1.51% to 18.96 yuan per share on June 16;Jiufeng Energyfell 3.08%;Shaanxi Natural Gasfell 2.22%.

IV. Institutional Views

Citibank (June 16): Significantly lowered the 2026-2027 TTF, JKM, and HH price forecasts. TTF average price in the second half of 2026 is $12.4/MMBtu (about €37/MWh), and in 2027 is $9.2/MMBtu. Believes that weak Asian LNG import demand and strong hydropower in China are key bearish factors.

Dongwu Securities (June 16 research report): As of June 12, US HH/Europe TTF/East Asia JKM/China LNG ex-factory/landed prices week-on-week +1.2%/-3.6%/+0.4%/+0.9%/-6%. European inventory is 493 TWh (47.7 billion cubic meters), down 101.4 TWh year-on-year; storage capacity rate is 43.59%, down 8.8 percentage points year-on-year.

V. Risk Warnings

Agreement Execution Risk: The signing is imminent on the 19th, but it will take time for shipping companies to regain confidence in navigating the strait, Qatar's resumption of production pace is unknown, and the agreement landing does not mean immediate supply recovery.

Urgent European Replenishment Window: Storage capacity rate is only 44.72%, 8.8 percentage points lower year-on-year, and the pressure to replenish inventory continues.

Domestic Cost and Demand Game: Raw gas cost maintains high at 4.0 yuan/cubic meter, leaving very limited profit margins for liquefaction plants. If terminal demand continues to be weak, some liquefaction plants may face pressure to reduce production.

Citi's Bearish Forecast Risk: Citi has significantly lowered its gas price forecast. If its judgment is accurate, the global gas price center may face a systemic downward shift.